None of the bad prophecies about Romania will come true

The first two months of this year confirmed that none of the scenarios regarding Romania starting from the premise that foreign direct investment would collapse and money transfers from Romanians working abroad would stop will materialise, states Andreas Treichl, CEO with Erste Group, the majority shareholder in BCR.

The first two months of the year saw a FDI inflow of 1.37bn euros, with the largest part in the form of capital increases and intra-group credits, plus 1.48bn euros from current transfers.
Treichl continues to counter the catastrophic assessments regarding CEE, including Austria, stating that many surveys have undocumented authors even though they are Nobel laureates in economy.
Erste head estimates the lending market of CEE will rise by 10% this year, with his group operating in eight countries, including Austria. He believes that at a certain moment people will realise that states such as the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Austria will "survive" despite the bad prophecies of Nobel laureates and then it will be clear Erste, too, will recoup its capital costs and witness a share price rally, as well.

As regards criticism on Erste Group's rush to ask for aid from the Austrian government as early as last October, Treichl says he does not plan to answer populist comments. "My task is to steer the company through this crisis. Transparency is important and clear decisions are equally important, both for employees, as well as for customers and investors. These are the things I represent."

Until 29 April, Erste is carrying out a participation capital offering with private investors having the possibility of subscribing, beside the Austrian government, for interest-bearing securities totally worth 2.7bn euros.
What important lesson could be learnt from the current crisis? "If we were to learn something, the lesson would be that the market and investors should adjust their expectations of the return on the institutions' committed capital, from 30% and more to 17-18% in the case of banks. This could mean the enforcement of much stricter conditions with regard to the minimum equity capital on the market. The current crisis will mark the next fifty years".

Source: ZF 27 April 2009